Kenya at the polls: A precautionary tale

With the upcoming elections in Kenya, now less than a week away, many people in the region and indeed the world are watching, waiting with bated breath. Many pundits are predicting violence akin to that of the fiasco of the 2007-2008 Post-election Violence (PEV).  The purpose of this short post is two-fold: Firstly, I wanted to write a brief, precautionary tale based on my own experiences of the 2007-08 PEV and perhaps convey a lesson that we have hopefully learned.  Secondly, this is a very intentional “shot across the bow” of a small but extremely influential group of people whose careers have benefited massively from the last PEV.  I am not talking about the politicians this time.  Rather, I am speaking directly to the international journalists who will cover the current Kenyan exercise.

Kenya has long been a very key strategic ally for many European and North American countries.  This is clearly nothing new and I won’t drag on about this in this space, save to say, it is quite natural, and extremely mutually beneficial that the relationship between Kenya and many external countries, continues, uninterrupted by the passing politics of the day. That in itself is why the world is watching and why high-profile stringers from every major media outlet are also standing by, as self-proclaimed experts, to give their take on the current political climate.

Interestingly, Kenya’s leaders have been warned repeatedly, including by everyone from Obama to Ban Ki Moon, to choose peace, and renounce violence. Ominously, some envoys have even warned that if presidential aspirants Uhuru and Ruto are voted into the presidency, there will be consequences for Kenya’s international standing, based on their current indictments by the International Criminal Court.  This is expected and warranted.

The International Crisis Group has urged CSOs, the private sector, religious bodies etc. to preach peace, encouraging them to take very public stances against violence.  This is excellent and a commendable position.  Kenyans have responded to this and many people have taken very public stances indeed, culminating in a public commitment by the aspirants themselves to condemn violence associated with the polls.

But one thing has remained under-emphasized and that is the implicit and critical role of the media in this equation.  And by media, I am referring mostly to the international media outlets and their stringers in Kenya.

In 2007 and 2008, I was living in between Naivasha and Nairobi. Parts of each of these urban areas were considered among the most highly impacted of the political violence.  During the entire spate of violence, I spent my time, as did millions of other Kenyans, attempting to proceed with life, work, and love. In fact, the vast majority of Kenyans did proceed with life as normal because the violence was restricted to a relatively small area (less than a fraction of a percentile of Kenya’s total area).  I am not saying this to minimize the impact of the violence on individuals and some communities. I was a first – hand witness to several events, roadblocks etc. during this time. The violence was intense, ugly and nefarious.  However, it was spatially bounded, in explicit pockets, not uniform across the country. Moreover, it is the headlines from the international media that stuck with me the most: Kenyan Crisis Worsens… Scores dead in Kenya poll clashes…Disputed Vote Plunges Kenya Into Bloodshed.  While these headlines and the subsequent media coverage, are not (spatially-speaking), inaccurate in that they were occurring within Kenya’s international boundaries, they are grossly misleading and sometimes even ridiculously speculative.  The fact is that Kenya, as a whole country, was not burning, not descending into bloodshed and chaos, not “blowing up in a cloud of widespread ethnic cleansing akin to Rwanda’s famous violence” as one reporter once told me.  There were pockets of intense violence and suffering as I have stated above.  These have left some deep scars on Kenya’s reputation and society. However, Kenya, as a whole was still functioning, with most Kenyans still pursuing life, and livelihoods despite chaos in pockets. 

Then came the travel bans and the associated paranoia of the international organizations.  The travel bans urged people to avoid Kenya completely. Never ever having been a target, many of the personnel that were evacuated from Kenya during this time, did so on the basis of the inaccurate media reporting that they were constantly being fed, creating an image and feeling that they themselves would somehow be targeted.  This was wholly inaccurate and not based on any verifiable fact. Unfortunately, the media did nothing to educate the wider audience that the violence was not engulfing every enclave of Kenya. The often-cited reason for not being more spatially explicit and specific about place names is that journalists do not feel their audiences will know where places like Kibera are. However, the role of a journalist is also the role of an educator, assisting audiences to be more informed about our world.  Surely, not everyone knew where Bhopal, Hiroshima or Sandy Hook were when those stories came to light?  We do know now, but surely we aren’t claiming that India is completely toxic, Japan radioactive or the entire US is at risk of being shot? Educating, not playing into our stereotypes, is one of the most important roles of media. Education about the spatial boundaries of the violence was only ever partially or inaccurately communicated to the audience and a lack of intensive scrutiny meant that journalists simply got away with it. Imagine if Boston evacuated because of the school shootings in Connecticut?  Imagine if every time a murder happened in Houston, people cancelled their business trips to Chicago?

The impact of inaccurate, imprecise reporting was felt most gruesomely in the tourism sector where cancellations, based on the international media’s claims that Kenya was burning, nearly collapsed the tourism market.  The Kenya Tourist Board estimate that 200,000 Kenyans are directly involved in the tourism industry and with an average family size of six, many millions more Kenyans depend directly on tourism revenues, not to mention the associated support industries.  During the 2007-2008 PEV, tourism numbers dropped catastrophically, with cancellations hitting an all-time high.   The sector showed -45% growth compared to an annual average of 9.8% growth in visitor numbers before the PEV. The economic impact was felt across all sectors of the country and with tourism as the second largest foreign income earner in the economy, GDP tumbled.

These impacts are directly attributable to international media reporting characterizing Kenya as a country descending into hell, a characterization which was grossly misleading.  I posit here that more Kenyans were negatively impacted by the inaccurate and exaggerated international media coverage, than were ever affected by the violence directly. 

You may be asking yourself why I am seemingly going after a free and fair press that gives a window in to the dark alleyways of Kenya’s politic process.  Here is the reasoning:  In all of the warnings and counter-warnings towards Kenya’s political elite, the religious leaders, civil society organizations etc., in the run-up to this current election, the media itself has never been warned to ensure that their stories are accurate and an appropriate appraisal of the actual facts.  Other independent analysts, including many of Kenya’s own political scientists are also noticing this and the message needs to be circulated.  My message to the international media is that they have a duty to ensure that the scope of their reporting is accurate to the time, the place and the extent of the impacts.  Exaggeration and misleading, speculative headlines are not the hallmark of the noble profession of journalism. Secondly, I encourage any one of my readers to get the verifiable facts, scrutinize the sound bites and news flashes you are hearing and if all else fails, call a Kenyan in Kenya and get an appraisal.  The calling rates have never been cheaper.  Or, as Uhuru believes, you can even use Skype.

In short, this is not a call for a boycott of the international media, nor is it an attack on the principles of a free-press. We all hope for a peaceful election process throughout Kenya. Indeed, the world needs Kenya, and Kenya needs the world.  However, I urge the international media to report that process accurately, fairly, and with relevant, verifiable facts.  I also ask international media outlets to refrain from speculation and drawing inaccurate, unfair conclusions lest they hurt more Kenyans than political violence ever could.  It is not only up to us to choose peace during this election; it is also up to us to make sure that that peace is reflected accurately.

 

 

The Militarization of Natural Resource Management, Elephants, Rhinos and…Seals

The militarization of wildlife poachers and the subsequent response by the organizations charged with the management of protected areas is one of the clearest examples of the role on natural resource management in the underlying issues of security and human development.  It is no secret that current insecurity in Darfur, eastern DRC and Somalia for example, are both influenced by and fueled with financial resources from the direct consumptive utilization of mineral and more recently, ivory, rhino horn and even charcoal.  The Kenya Wildlife Service claims that the charcoal and ivory trade are fueling Al Shabab’s continued operations in eastern Kenya and enables their strangle hold on Kismayo, in southern Somalia.  Subsequently, the hunt for poachers and other purveyors of illegally extracted natural resources has intensified into a full military and para-military operation throughout eastern and southern Africa.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that these trends have been on a long steady increase since at least the 1980’s, but in recent years, the pressure has significantly intensified due to geo-political maneuvering and poor decision-making by bodies such as CITES who allowed a one-off sale of ivory in 2008 despite the protests of countries such as Kenya which warned of the reigniting of demand. This sale has been repeatedly cited as causing the renewed resurgence in demand for ivory, a contextual detail that matters.  In any natural resource grab, the path of least resistance, and therefore the path of least transactional costs, will be the one that is exploited first.

In Kenya, this is indeed a crisis which warrants a full-scale state response in the interest of Natural and inherently National security.   However, what is desperately needed is not a knee-jerk military reaction on the part of the national and international security and natural resource management community but rather, a detailed analysis of the drivers of conflict, and the responses to it, which should in turn guide our policy decisions towards a more long-term stabilization of natural resource management decisions, and consequently, national security here in East Africa.  The poaching crisis is a symptom, not the disease and the broader picture shows issues in the delivery of humanitarian aid, national development policy, maritime law and the governance of international waters, the management of grazing lands and the control of the border and immigration issues.  Like most complex management issues, the current crisis is a huge number of interrelated political and management issues.  Solutions must treat it as such and not try and narrow it down to a problem of “Somali poachers”.  Failure to take this systematic response will likely continue to entrench the status quo of half-baked approaches, which erode the natural capital of the region while we focus on chasing a few ivory poachers around an area the size of Western Europe.  Punitive actions always make us feel good.  They give us the façade of justice having been served.  However, the small vacuum created by “taking out a few poachers” will undoubtedly be filled quickly and long-term stability, the desired outcome, will be sadly unobtainable.

The transition to a broader approach has been advocated by a few and can be accomplished using common tools such as the DPSIR framework and many others.  However, a full situational analysis, accompanied by the development of both policy and legislative instruments in addition to strengthened enforcement mechanisms is desperately needed.  Unfortunately, all of what I have just discussed could possibly be overshadowed, if not completely lost on a few ‘meatheads’** (see discussion in the comments section) who lack understanding of basic pragmatism, cooperation, diplomacy and effective adaptive management, advocating instead for full scale military-based solutions.  We are currently experiencing the manifestation of those knee-jerk reactions here in Tsavo.

The current crisis has attracted some interesting characters, who often volunteer their time to assist.  Whilst volunteering one’s time and expertise is appreciated, it can sometimes do more harm than good, as contextual analysis is often quite shallow. Moreover, volunteers always have an expiry date, often leaving those that have hosted them in the lurch, picking up the pieces and repairing the damage.  A case in point is our current cohort of visitors, two former US Navy SEALs.

The two SEALs visiting us have come to ‘advise’ us on our security apparatus in an effort to bolster our current enforcement activities.  They are the most highly trained individuals imaginable, on many fronts and one cannot help but be a bit in awe of their physical presence. We all know that we need help as one of the greatest scrambles for natural resources is unfolding all around us.  However, ‘help’ is sometimes no help at all.  Anywhere else in the world these guys would be known as mercenaries but because they are from the US they are somehow referred to as ‘security consultants’.  Their presence has not gone unnoticed by our local staff, nor the Kenya Wildlife Service as their ‘advisory’ role has quickly been self-morphed into a more commandeering role.  This has caused obvious friction and some repulsion both internally in the management and externally, amongst the wider community. Whilst regaling us with their exploits in Afghanistan, Iraq and any other number of countries, “splattering brains and guts all over walls…” and “hacking down insurgents with our hatchets, splitting their skulls in half…” these gentlemen have come to epitomize the very things that make many people sick about American contemporary culture and war-mongering.  The bravado with which they extol their own exploits, the obvious solutions to our poaching problems which we clearly have never thought of, and the continual massaging of their own egos, does little to ensure the long-term proper management of natural resources in East Africa.  Moreover, this same bravado is the number one limiting factor in keeping their often excellent training and problem-solving awareness from being more widely accepted by those they are attempting to train.  These chaps are used to popping in to a country, removing or annihilating someone, and jetting back out.  Unfortunately, the ideas that is being conveyed, which are largely the ‘American way or the highway’ attitude, have been somewhat unappreciated in this part of Kenya mostly because they fail to see the loss of elephants and rhinos for what it really is…a failure to contain the situation in Somalia, and equally epic failure to apply diplomatic pressure on the markets in the Vietnam and China.  In short, for all of their good intentions, these guys are premium meatheads and cannot understand that a long-term systematic analysis of the drivers of commercial poaching, the general insecurity and the socio-economic forces underlying environmental degradation are just as key to the solution as “shooting every poacher in sight”.    This is problematic when the drivers of degradation in the environment are much more removed and insidious than a few poachers from Somalia.  Those drivers, and dealing with them at a policy and political level, are the key to ensuring long-term sustainable management of our East African landscapes.  In this case, a military solution may be needed in the immediate term, but a wholesale gang-war is not.  A long-term solution lays only in the realm of sensible policy and regular, systematic enforcement without the bravado of Iraq and Afghanistan.  Now back to my two favourite SEALs…

I am a firm believer that we all have more in common than not.  I also am a firm believer that everyone has a few redeeming attributes. It is an interesting experience having a conversation with these two gentlemen, who for all of their bluster and bravado are quite congenial fellows.  They are normal guys with families who enjoy being out in the bush.  However, intensive situational analysis of the operating environment in which natural resource management decisions are made and enforced in East Africa, does not rank among their stronger skills sets. In fact, when I queried them about the greater context of influence on the poaching crisis, the underlying drivers, the market dynamics, the diplomatic and political channels that should be exploited, I was met with ‘hmmpf’ and the another zephyr of wisdom in the form of a one-liner:  “we are diplomats, humanitarians and warriors…”.   That quintessentially arrogant attitude manifested in the lines such as “we have the answers” (even after our rather shallow and paranoid analysis of the situation) and “if you guys would just fall in line and do what we say, we could take care of this problem” becomes rather unsettling the deeper into conversations that we get. This attitude also perpetuates the falsehood that stereotypical analysis and singular, militarized solutions to natural resource management issues will work for long-term sustainability.  There are far too many examples to count that prove this assertion painfully wrong.  Unfortunately, my two SEAL friends believe their own dogma far too religiously to see that larger picture. In fact, I don’t think I have actually ever met more brainwashed individuals outside of Mormonism, Jehovah’s Witnesses and other religious sects – which brings me to my final point about this entire situation.  Natural resource management is a science, not a religion.  Being a Navy SEAL is seemingly a religion, and battling the Taliban or Al Shabab or any other ideological enemy, is just another ‘religious war’.  However, real tangible long-term solutions to natural management issues are not bound in religious conviction (although they can be aided by those convictions) but rather in tangible, pragmatic, science-based solutions and policy interventions.   Until we get that right, our enforcement challenges will only grow, even with the help of the world’s finest warriors.

 

The Discipline of Diligence

Our attention spans as humans seem to be getting shorter and shorter.  Some blame the Internet generation, video games and the touch-pad age.  Others blame a general apathy on our part to see the importance of following anything that is not immediately gratifying.  I tend to be an optimist.  Whatever the reason, following an issue or subject that we are passionate about, that is bigger than ourselves and that most likely, challenges and confounds our ability to find answers for, is a discipline.   There is an inherent importance in this day and age for actually paying attention to the same subject over a longer period of time.  With that said, I wanted to continue to follow and to update you, the reader, about any developments on the stories and subjects that I have written about so far.  I will start with the oldest story herein and move forward, chronologically and will likely post in several parts. 

The Machine Gun Preacher

The movie had mixed reviews in the box office. Many critics thought it was a bust but apparently it is being widely hailed among evangelical church groups as a brave testament, and sermon topic for the role that one man can have in saving people.  I still have not seen it and do not intend to.  However, a friend, who is an academic, encouraged me to see it and try and weigh the film and the idea through the academic lens.  I intend to do so, at some point.  In the meantime I have been awaiting the documentary that has been promised to show his questionable trip to Darfur.  To date, I have not been able to locate a copy.  I have repeatedly attempted to contact Sam Childers himself via his website, blog, his friends and his email address with no response to date.  I believe that constructive criticism is important and dialogue should be exercised accordingly.  He may in fact be able to dispel the rumours and my arguments and questions to his legitimacy.  I would welcome that.  However, so far, his silence tends to raise more questions about the legitimacy of many of his claims about his work in Sudan.  Alas, it seems that under legitimate questioning he is more likely to pawn it off as “persecution” for doing God’s will.

Southern Kordofan

Southern Kordofan, along with Blue Nile State and the Darfur states, continue to be subjected to the marginalization policies and violence of the National Congress Party (NCP) in Khartoum.  This has intensified greatly since the South Sudanese seceded in July.  Continued attacks along the border regions in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile State specifically have resulted in massive displacement into refugee camps just inside the new borders of South Sudan.   The NCP government has pursued civilians into these areas and continued aerial bombardment well within South Sudan’s territory.   The resultant displacement is a humanitarian disaster.  South Sudan’s recent decision to simply shut off the oil pipeline has only served to exacerbate the tensions.  The posturing by the new government in the South is expected.  However, the resistance and intolerance of the NCP’s actions in Sudan itself is growing as well, both by civilians and armed rebel groups.  In fact, this shared persecution is one of the uniting factors between rebel forces in each of the three states and a recent announcement of uniformity in their goals has sparked a renewed hope that the brutal regime’s continued crimes against their own people will come to and end. Khartoum’s response was as efficient and brutal as ever with the killing of Khalil Ibrahim, one of the rebel leaders and a former minister in the Government of Sudan.  However, with each passing day we are hopeful that the seeds of change sewn elsewhere in the world will begin to inspire ordinary citizens stand up to the NCP government of Omar Bashir.  In fact, residents of Nyala, South Darfur, where I once resided, displayed their discontent with the ruling NCP today in what can only be described as general civil disobedience in the town.  As expected, they were met with a categorical show of force by police, military and the infamous Abu Tira, all loyal to the NCP.  Undoubtedly, there is a long road ahead.

Unfortunately, the situation in neighbouring Southern Kordofan has gone from bad to worse with intensified bombing of civilian targets and a complete blockade of aid reaching the state.  There are now legitimate concerns that the NCP is laying siege to towns in order to ready themselves for a full on attack of both rebel and civilian targets, particularly in the Kauda Valley.   The resultant civilian casualties of a siege and subsequent attack are likely to be disastrous.  Already aid groups estimate that nearly half a million civilians are at risk of food insecurity in the coming months. Although plans for the African Union to negotiate access for aid, one wonders, diplomatically speaking, what will be sacrificed.  For example, will the support for the ICC warrant for the arrest Omar Bashir be dropped?

Citizen journalist Ryan Boyette continues to exemplify what it means to be committed to constructive action.  His professional, and extremely important work remains a valuable contribution to the mountain of evidence of the NCP’s atrocities, through his regular reporting from the front lines including heavy fighting: http://twitpic.com/7rz48v.   

Ryan’s most recent report is as follows:

“On January 9th and 10th, 2012 there was heavy fighting between SAF and
SPLA-N forces in the village of Braum and Tess.  The SAF forces pushed their way to Braum in an offensive attack.  The SPLA-N forces repelled the attack and the SAF forces retreated back to Kadugli.

During the attack in Tess the SAF air force bombed the surrounding area
wounding and killing many civilians.  The exact number is unknown.  Although I have attached pictures of the wounded civilians.  The civilians were treated by the SPLA-N medic in a near by village.  There have also been reports of rape of women in Tess village by SAF soldiers.  Since SAF troops are still located near the road to Yida Refugee camp many civilians are scared to travel south to the refugee camp.”   

You can follow Ryan on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/ryanboyette

At this juncture I think it is important to tip our hats to two groups of people.  The first group is rather obvious; immense appreciation should be shown to all of the people assisting to bring aid to those displaced by the tensions and fighting.  Your diligence, devotion and sacrifices are appreciated.  Secondly, and more importantly still, I commend the ordinary Sudanese citizens who are participating in acts of civil disobedience in the northern towns and cities in order to show their own distaste for the current leadership.  Undoubtedly, you will need to be brave. 

 

 

 

Update on The Price of Plunder

In the intervening days since Friday’s deadly events, some progress has been made in stabilizing Ijema Funan, the injured ranger.  Although his injuries are severe and likely to be a life-long disability, he is stable and in excellent hands in Nairobi.  For that I am intensely grateful. He will undergo multiple, lengthy and extensive surgeries to replace his shattered shoulder and repair the wound on his face.

Abdullahi Mohammed’s (aka Abdi) funeral was attended by many in the community, a testament to the loss and pride of the community of the role rangers play in protecting the local environment.  He will be sorely missed.

Additionally, in an excellent turn of events, two of the perpetrators have been captured in the nearby town of Mackinnon Road.  A full report of their capture is available here.  Their capture represents an important step in bringing justice to the families of Abdi and Ijema and the wider WW family.  Their arrest is also leading to a wealth of intel on other nefarious activities in the area, including the recovery of the assault rifle used the incident.

Thank you for your continued reading.  I will keep you updated. La Luta Continua

.

 

The Price of Plunder

I write this post with sadness. As I am typing, one of my friends and former colleagues is in surgery in a Nairobi hospital, a round from an AK having ripped off half his face and a second round through his shoulder.  Another former colleague has just been buried in the red sands of Tsavo.  This is the human price of plunder. 

In the last two years, the massive escalation of elephant and rhino poaching in eastern and southern Africa has resulted in the emergence of powerful cartels which fund and control the wealth generated from the sale of the ivory and horn.   There are various theories as to where the money ends up with some experts claiming that the money funds Al-Shabab activities in nearby southern Somalia.  Others believe that there is at least complicity, if not full involvement, within the local government structures in order to allow for the massive scale of the current crisis.  The crisis that is emerging erodes the natural ecosystems on which Kenyans are intrinsically tied and on which forms the foundation for the future.

Often, brave men like my two friends are all that stand between the widespread plundering of the environment by powerful groups of criminals.  They have selflessly given their lives for that cause and will be remembered as heroes. 

In Paul Collier’s book, The Plundered Planet, he asserts that the developing world’s greatest asset is its natural capital.  Collier claims that the governance and management of natural assets can have one of two impacts: either to buoy the country towards a sustainable development path, or in the absence of regulation, result in the absolute plunder of the natural environment.  In the past, too often, the latter has been the case. Governance (regulation), technology and natural capital form the three main components of his argument.  A poignant reminder of this paradigm comes in the form of one of Collier’s simple equations: Nature + Technology – Regulation = Plunder.  I will write more on this at a later date. 

As one man’s family mourns him, and another man’s prays for his recovery, the plundering of the environment continues unabated.  If the environment is crucial to our development, and the foundation of our future, it is my hope that we soon come to realize that the price of plunder is ultimately a human one. 

Rest in peace brother.

                                                                    

 

Follow-up to Canada, Kyoto and the Crisis of Climate in East Africa…

I came across this excellent video from Yale University’s School of Forestry and Environmental Studies.  I encourage you to take a few minutes to watch it.

When The Water Ends: Africa’s Climate Conflicts by : Yale Environment 360.

 

Canada, Kyoto and the Crisis of Climate in the Horn of Africa

Canada’s recent decision to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol irks me.  It irks me because, as a Kenyan – Canadian, it is a poor reflection of the values our society purports to have, the values that once made Canadians well-respected, defenders of human rights. It is no secret that the decision was almost entirely motivated by financial and political pressures.  However, Peter Kent, the Environment Minister, a man who recently failed to articulate what the ozone layer was, claims that the Kyoto Protocol is bad for Canada.  I am really not sure what metric of success Mr. Kent is using but unfortunately if we are not part of the solution we are certainly part of the problem.  Canada is now the only country in the G8 to actually increase our emissions over the period of the Protocol.  What is ‘bad’ for Canada should be more accurately and succinctly be put as ‘bad for the Conservative government and the deep pockets of the oil-rushers’ in northern Alberta.  Our failure to meet our obligations under the Kyoto Protocol is not only a national embarrassment, but it also means that we are actually actively undermining many of the ideals which we as Canadians claim we support.

The Kyoto Protocol

I am not going to tell you that the Kyoto Protocol is perfect because it is not.  However, it is the best tool we have, and has been continually refined over almost two decades. In Europe for example, it has been very successful in many parts of the world at reducing the emissions generated from industrial processes, transport, and promoting reforestation.   More recently, the promise of mechanisms such as REDD, can help to augment those successes by articulating the financial resources of the developed world, with developing countries, that host significant forest resources in return for “credits”.   Although these REDD credits are not yet applicable to compliance oriented targets, future iterations of the agreements such as Kyoto will likely allow for REDD credits to be applied towards compliance. Ironically, this concept was actually birthed in Canada at the CoP 11 in Montreal.  Through mechanisms like REDD, the developing world can receive the funding they need to protect tropical forests from which we all benefit, as these forests act to recycle significant amounts of CO2 emissions.  Under the current Kyoto obligations, by the end of 2012, Canada would owe roughly $14 billion in penalties, having missed all of our compliance emissions targets.  In the future iterations of the Protocol, those penalties will most likely go directly towards purchasing REDD credits from projects which not only provide massive sustainable forest management benefits, but also multiple co-benefits such as poverty reduction and biodiversity conservation.  However, instead, we have simply decided to abandon Kyoto, the only country EVER to sign, ratify and subsequently abandon the legally binding agreement.  Our excuse?  It is too expensive and we must concentrate on our economy…

Debunking Myths

I was recently a caller on a talk radio show in eastern Canada discussing climate change.  The radio presenter was asking callers to convince him that climate change was real (yes, there are still some deniers out there).  What surprised me was the bulk of the callers actually believed that climate change is made up and that it was a scam to make money.  A second, and possibly more important part of the debate revolved around the question of whether or not Canada was right to pull out of Kyoto.  Most people agreed that Canada was indeed right and “why should we give money for climate change mitigation when we don’t emit that much?” or “The Chinese emit way more than we do…”. Now, I realize that radio call-in shows are not the best gauge of public opinion in Canada. However, what struck me is that if many Canadians are so unsure as to whether or not the climate is indeed changing, and furthermore, whether or not we are to blame, then is it not easier than ever to effectively ‘pull the wool over our eyes’?  Could it be that that is exactly what is happening?  At it’s best this is short-term thinking, at its worst, it is an abuse of human rights.  If you feel I am getting fired up, than just wait.

Many people raise confusing arguments about Canada’s contribution to the world of emissions.  There are some confusing numbers out there as well. However, in response to those that claim Canada is not a “big emitter”, we are not, in gross terms. However, we have a tiny population and yet our emissions per capita are some of the highest in the world. 

Others claim that China emits way more so why should they get a free ride?  China does emit more, again in gross terms.  But there are two reasons not to take that statistic at face value: 1) there are 1.3 billion Chinese (of course they have greater emissions) and 2) many of those emissions are created running factories to build cheap stuff for North Americans. 

Other people have raised the idea that Kyoto Protocol has failed to get these big emitters on board and that they are in effect getting a “free ride”.  Yes, the Kyoto Protocol has failed to get big emitters on board, the US in particular.  Although the US originally signed the protocol, it was never ratified by the legislative branch.  Other big emitters are not currently on board but will be in the future. China, India, Brazil and others are only enjoying a “free ride” in so much as we have had a “free ride” for the past 150 years.  In fact, under future iterations of the Kyoto protocol, their free ride would be much shorter than ours. 

Human Induced Climate Change

I believe that the climate is changing on the earth and that we, as a human race are responsible for much of that change.  I am not a climatologist, but I am a social scientist and human nature is often easier to predict than we think.   We are selfish and we don’t like to know we messed things up.  In particular industrialized societies have generated billions of tonnes of CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalents) which have acted to exacerbate the greenhouse effect causing an increase in atmospheric carbon from roughly 280ppm in 1750 to roughly 380ppm now, an era that corresponds exactly to the Industrial Revolution and the subsequent fossil-fuel driven growth that has defined our times.  The correlation is undeniable.  Furthermore, climate change is not something that can be forecast effectively and so there are bound to be mistakes in some of the models. Nothing of this scope has ever been encountered by humankind and so, although the science is rigorous, there will inevitably be mistakes in prediction.  However, that is not to say that the science is debatable.  It simply isn’t.  Science is a tool and inherently neutral.  But I want to push this envelope slightly further by taking the emphasis off of the forecasting and predictions of climate change, so hotly debated by North Americans, and bring it back to the present tense.  Climate change is already having devastating impacts on many parts of the world.  You can debate it until you are blue in the face if you would like to, but the truth is that major emitters per capita such as Canada are having a catastrophic impact on people in other areas of the world. 

The Current Impacts of our Emissions

It is no secret that scarcity causes conflict.  Whether that conflict is a bargain sale at the local Best Buy, or something much more basic such as access to clean water or food, conflict is, sadly, often the result of competition over something scarce.  Most of us know this inherently but few of us actually realize our role in promulgating such scarcities in the wider world today.   If we knew that we were causing conflict, even indirectly, would we change?

In my work and private life, I have had the privilege of spending some time in places like Darfur and the Horn of Africa over the last two decades.  During this time, I have seen firsthand the impacts of a changing climate on the lives of those most vulnerable with increasingly erratic rainfall, failures in crops and loss of livestock, loss of livelihoods, deepening conflicts and poorly implemented responses to those conflicts.  Climate change has been, and continues to be, one of the most devastating drivers of conflict and human suffering in the world today. Paradoxically, the people caught up in the conflicts are people that have the lowest ecological footprint in the world.   Ban Ki Moon, when speaking about the Darfur conflict, puts it bluntly in a 2007 Washington Post article “Almost invariably, we discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political shorthand – an ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers. Look to its roots, though, and you discover a more complex dynamic. Amid the diverse social and political causes, the Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part from climate change”.

I recently watched an excellent short documentary by Al Jazeera linking the increasingly severe conflicts in northern and northeastern Kenya directly to the failure of climate change mitigation efforts in developed countries.  I encourage you to watch it is as well.  Seldom are my thoughts and investigations put as coherently as this short documentary.

The Government of Canada’s decision to pull out of the obligations inherent in the Kyoto Protocol is disturbing to me because it represents the insidious deterioration of transparency and global leadership that Canada once showed.   Mr. Kent explicitly highlighted that Canada did not want to spend $14 billion buying credits to make up for the emissions targets that we have missed, mainly because of our ever-growing bitumen mining exercises in northern Alberta. Instead, Canada seems content to continue to pump foreign aid to the tune of $5.335 billion in 2009-10 in to places like eastern Africa’s Horn with hopes of bringing stability to the region, attempting to mitigate conflict but certainly not carbon.  Interestingly, CIDA, Canada’s International Development Agency, claims that one of their three priority, cross-cutting themes is “environmental sustainability”.   

As a Canadian, it irks me to know that we are no longer part of the solution, but rather only part of the problem. Our excuses for being part of that problem are nothing more than financial.  Our emissions, and our subsequent failure to prioritize mitigating those emissions, are having directly harmful and negative impacts on other people in the world, human beings that we purport to defend the rights of. We find ourselves instead, embroiled in silly arguments as to whether or not climate change is even real while our government serves the interests of a few hyper-emitting industries.  Climate change is indeed a current reality.  I am sorry to say Mr. Kent, but without meaningful carbon emissions reductions, inherent in the Kyoto Protocol, than all the aid money in the world will not reverse the damage our emissions are doing to the lives of those in East Africa.

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere. We are caught in an inescapable network of mutuality, tied in a single garment of destiny. Whatever affects one directly, affects all indirectly.”
— Martin Luther King Jr., 1963, Letter from a Birmingham Jail

 

Lest We Forget

Today is Remembrance Day in Canada, Armistice Day in the UK and Veterans Day in the US.  I have been watching the History Channel today and I am always struck by the tremendous actions of the generations that lived and died during the World Wars in particular.  I will never claim to have seen war as intimately as those generations did, but having seen some facets of war during my life and work and the type of violence that these men and women witnessed, I can say that it must have been hell.  As the documentary interviewed veterans, strong men moved to tears by the losses they witnessed, I found myself desperately wanting to ask them just two questions: Is the type of lifestyle that you see our generation living now, what you believed that you were protecting? And secondly, Is the generation that I live in exhibiting the values that you fought and bled for? I would like to imagine that their answers would be surprising.

As I was pondering this today I have come up with two things (among many) where I believe that we are have and continue to be heading in the wrong direction.  These two things are the subtle yet profound differences in the way we view Rights and Freedoms.

Concerning our Rights, I believe that we have conflated the fundamental human rights with qualitative augmentations to human rights.  We can all agree that every human has the right to water.  However, we don’t have the right to hot water.  We have the right to clean air, not necessarily air conditioning.  We have the right to education but University is still a privilege.  Food – but not whatever we want, whenever and wherever we want. All these qualitative augmentations to our basic rights are things that bring relief, insight and joie de vivre, but they are not rights.  They are functions of our management of resources and the dynamics of international trade.  And here’s the kicker, qualitative augmentations to our rights always come at a cost to someone, somewhere.  Whether that was your grandfather on a beach in Normandy, or a kid mining coltan in the DRC, qualitative augmentations, cost someone somewhere.

Concerning, our Freedoms, I believe that we have conflated the Freedom to…do whatever I want, with the Freedom from…oppression, injustices, tyranny and unrepresentative governments.   I think our generation has been sold on the idea that the American Dream was the freedom to consume at any rate we want.  Our generation was told that our “Freedom and way of life are under threat” in the era of terrorism and that the “Axis of Evil” is the boogie-man coming to keep you from living the way you want.  AND that if we wanted to fight that oppression, we need to go out and spend money, stimulating the economy.  I believe that many in our societies have lost track of the definitional difference between rich living, and living richly, demonstrated by our obsession with economic growth and GDP as the sole metric of our “health”.  Could it be more ironic that our freedom to…spend all our money on rich living, is what is actually killing us, driving the divisions in our own society, drawing the hatred of others and above all, undermining the planet itself?

Freedom from oppression, tyranny and injustice are true freedoms, freedoms which dignify the human existence, bring mutual understanding and unity.  The Freedom to do whatever we want, live however we feel like living, perpetrate crimes against others in our country and the rest of the world if it threatens our way of life and our social standing, is not a freedom that I would be willing to die for.  I am not sure that our veterans would think that that was worth seeing their friends die for either.

Today in our world, there are a tremendous number of opportunities to exercise our freedoms and rights in a way that constructively extends those rights and freedoms to others. In fact, just yesterday friends of mine working in Southern Sudan were bombed by Omar Bashir’s SAF as he attempted to annihilate a refugee camp, including a school. In a world that we sometimes feel is going to hell, there are still good fights to be fought although rarely are the “bad guys” as easily identifiable as Hitler or Bashir.  In fact, we have to be willing to admit that our own lifestyles are driving the repression of others and in so doing our enemy may even be ourselves.  But in order to know that, we must revisit the definitions of rights and freedoms.  It is essential that our generation is as ready to fight for these things as other generations were.  It is essential that we continue to fight those good fights, not to pass on oppression in our rates of consumption, greed and mock-up of the American Dream, but to pass on the freedom from oppression and human rights.

Our rights and freedoms have come at a tremendous cost and revisiting the definitions of each of those rights and freedoms is a necessary and important exercise if our generation is going to take a different trajectory than those before us.  If we allow the definitions to fade, the meanings to be blurred, we too may find that we will have to revisit the costly mistakes of our forefathers in the endless cycle of violence that is war.  Lest we forget – veterans, I salute you.

 

East Africa rising…?

I wanted to link a couple of interesting articles this morning talking about the emerging importance of East Africa. As the balance of power in the world shifts, the dynamics of trade, governance and especially the management of the environment become ever more important.  As we surpassed the ’7 billion people’ mark this past month, the realization that the world is getting smaller and smaller is more pertinent than ever.  This growth presents an excellent opportunity for emerging economies such as those in eastern Africa.  Harnessing the power of people in the region will ultimately be inextricably linked to providing good environmental governance. As the region’s population grows, it’s economic potential is not only linked to the availability of a skilled workforce but how that workforce interacts with the environment and the Ecosystem Goods and Services derived from it.  Have a look at these two perspectives on the population growth and the strategic importance of the East African region.  Let me know your thoughts:

http://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/kenya-rising-and-germany-falling-a-tale-of-two-populations#comment-12803

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/10/201110289314839415.html

 

 

 

What if…? Exploring the Ramifications of Kenya’s War on Al Shabab

For anyone that knows me, I like to ask the question ‘what if…?’ and the last few days have resulted in a lot of such questions.

About ten days ago, the Kenya Military formally went to war with a radicalized group of fundamentalists known as  Al-Shabab.  Al Shabab has been happily entrenched in southern Somalia for the last several years, and has recently won more notoriety for denying access to their areas for the delivery of humanitarian aid.  Even more recently however, the Kenyan government has accused Al Shabab of entering Kenya and abducting several tourists and aid workers.  

It is no surprise that Al Shabab have risen out of the anarchy in Somalia over the last two decades.   I will be the first to admit that I am not a Somalia expert but it seems likely that in a place where governance of any sort is rare, the encouraging words of religiously affiliated extremists somehow allow people to have hope that somewhere, sometime, things will get better…or at least they will be forced to have said hope.

Kenya’s decision to go to war with Al Shabab and invade Somalia was an interesting one.  Although certainly not surprising, the validity of timing was debatable.  I am not really going to explore the intricacies of the war with Al Shabab from a military standpoint or as a focal point in continuation of the Bush administration’s “Global War on Terror”.  I think that many analysts have already focused on that and only time will tell whether or not Kenya’s war will turn into the protracted conflict that many are predicting.  The only thing that I will say is that the recent truck bomb that went off in Mogadishu and killed over 70 students sitting for an entrance exam had all the sophisticated hallmarks of an increased Al Qaeda presence.  I think that that really alarmed some people in Kenya’s echelons of power … only time will tell what happens on that front.

Instead, I will focus on the intricacies of the economic ramifications of the war with Al Shabab.  Although many argue that Kenyans have benefited economically from the presence of massive aid operations servicing everyone from Rwanda to Sudan to Somalia, Kenyans have also bore a huge burden in terms of pressure to admit refugees, pressure on limited ecosystem goods and services and pressure on already stretched government services.   Somalia has given Kenya millions of her people in Dadaab.  Many more thousands of those displaced from Somalia end up languishing in Eastleigh with little or no status.  Sometimes they even delegitimize ethnically Somali Kenyans by their propensity towards obtaining illegal paperwork.  In addition to the burden of more refugees, the resulting insecurity in the many rural areas of Northeastern, Coast and Eastern Provinces has meant that effectively half the country is in a state of flux and formal economic stagnation. But perhaps most worrying, is the influx of extremist infiltrating the ranks of legitimate refugees.  A spate of grenade attacks in Nairobi is an illustration of just how quickly Al Shabab can hit back at Kenya. With attacks on visitors subsequently injuring the tourist industry, still recovering from the post election violence and the global economic downturn, the economic prospects for Kenya could be dire indeed.

Now, let’s revisit the invasion of Somalia by the Kenyan army through a different lens.   We all know that wars are very costly and this one between Kenya and Al Shabab will be no different.  In fact, the Kenyan taxpayer will likely pay a massive bill for this little war over the next many many years to come.  Does that sound unfair? Absolutely, and especially considering that the failed state status of Somalia has hardly anything to do with Kenyans.  In fact, the anarchy in Somalia is quite old indeed.  However, most experts agree that what was once fairly arcane, inter-clan hostility, kept in check by camel debt, was given a boost of virility by the dumping of high-tech weaponry on a region with little or no governance during the Cold War.  The US and the USSR’s proxy war resulted in the deep erosion of traditional Somali safeguards such as environmental management, grazing management and rotation strategies and the camel debt.  In effect, everyone defaulted on camel debt all at once…sound familiar?  Anarchy ensued and when the US won the Cold War, no one was around to collect the billions of dollars worth of weaponry dumped on Somalia. 

Cleaning up, containing and simply trying to keep track of the anarchy associated with the Somali failed state has been the job of successive Kenyan governments since the 1960s and the beginning of the shifta wars, with varying degrees of success, collaboration and corruption.  Recently, the Kenya Police released their statistics on crime and successes against armed elements, criminal gangs and collection of illegal weapons.  The results were as revealing as they were impressive.  I found the “Operations against Aliens” section particularly interesting where the vast majority of cases were against Somalis.  

Economically Kenya is dependent on a number of key sectors, especially horticulture and tourism.  With this hard currency Kenya has done very well at repaying debts to the IMF for development loans and other stabilization measures.  In the IMF’s most recent report on Kenya they rank it as a dependable and say that ‘Kenya has managed its debt relatively well and has regularly met its obligations…”.  Either way you look at it though, Kenyans pay up to 24% of their GDP towards external debts of which 47% goes to IMF loans alone. Much of this has been borrowed to finance development and most importantly, to stabilize Kenya.  Stabilize Kenya?  The money is actually directly used to stabilize our rather volatile currency (volatile I might add, because investor confidence in the region is somewhat strained by the threat of anarchy from our neighbours…).

Every major bank, government, NGO, UN agency or industry leader has an office in Nairobi and the strategic importance is very clear.   Kenya has been able to attract this level of investment because it has been the stable kid on the block., the forward thinking, well-educated, well connected place where people want to be. 

Now drift with me a bit.   When Germany lost the World Wars, countries in Europe sought payments for the damages inflicted upon them.  Germany had to pay out, (and by some accounts are still paying out), billions of dollars of reparations.  Concurrent to our little war here in Kenya, Greece is asking to default on her loans.  Analysts point out that if Greece goes, Spain and Ireland could be close behind.  Bailouts, bailouts and more bailouts for those places that are considered strategically important – all in the same vein as those banks that were “too big to fail”.  So, here comes the big what if…    What if Kenyans told the IMF to take their loan repayments and buzz off and instead asked for reparations from the US for its and the former Soviet Unions’ destabilizing impacts on the entire region?   What if Kenyans say “You need to pay us for having us deal with your destabilizing mess in our region, while you enjoyed 20 years of prosperity after the Cold War”… now that is a big what if…but seriously, what if?  The ramifications are endless… but then again, the Chinese don’t seem too worried about credit ratings*

When I started this blog, I made a point of emphasizing that this was a forum for debate.  I do want to encourage that forum and I want to learn from you.  So let’s hear your thoughts and comments.

* Please note, I am not advocating that Kenya default on financial obligations to the IMF or other external lending institutions, nor am I suggesting that Kenya should flout its commitment to international laws, judicial reforms and it’s commitments to development for its people.  I am simply asking ‘what if…?’ in an effort to get to the point that the wealthiest countries in the world have direct obligations to the region for development assistance, stabilization, investment and governance and that those obligations need to extend well beyond bilateral trade obligations, structural adjustments and opening of free-market systems.